I remain one game behind Travis picking the division this year; it’s tough to catch up when we keep predicting the same outcomes. We both went 1-2 picking all the same winners last week, missing on the Bears and Vikings games but correctly picking the Lions to win. That means Travis is still leading at 18-12, while I sit at 17-13 for the year. Once again, two of the North teams play each other this week, so we have just three games to work with.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5, O/U 41 points)
Scott and I finally have round one of our beloved teams against each other here in week 11. The Bears were favored for the first time last week, and they promptly lost at home to Green Bay. Now they welcome the Lions and their two game win streak to Soldier Field.
I think that the Bears got away from their successful formula last week, passing too much in the game overall. Detroit just struggled stopping the Browns’ run game, so the Bears should lean heavily on Jordan Howard and company to try and control the clock. Yes, Trubisky has been making some better throws, and he’ll need to make a couple in this one, but those should be built on success in the run game. One of the lesser-known pass catchers will need to do something with Darius Slay taking away whoever the Bears try to establish on the outside. Oh, and they should run the ball a ton…did I mention that?
As for the Lions, they also need to generate some movement on the ground. Weather conditions this time of year can be tricky, so you have to be able to grind out yards on the ground. The return of Taylor Decker should help with that. Stafford should be able to make plays through the air, but he’ll need to avoid turnovers. If the Lions can stay positive in the turnover margin, then they should be okay as the better team, even on the road. I think they have another late comeback to get a nice divisional win. -Travis
The Bears have some solid home wins under their belts this season (Steelers, Panthers), and they’ve played the Packers, Saints, and Vikings close. Despite a losing record and a rookie quarterback, Chicago is no pushover. They can rush the passer and stop the run as well as anyone in the league. The Lions just beat a Cleveland Browns team that plays a similar style of ball-control run offense and stout run defense, so they should at least be prepared for the looks the Bears will throw at them. Chicago has more talent than Cleveland on both sides of the ball and they’re playing at home, so the Lions will need to play better than they did last week to come away with a win.
Fortunately, the Lions defense has been better on the road than at home all year, and I don’t think the Bears are going to be able to do much in the passing game. They would rather run the ball anyway, and the Browns exposed the Lions run defense last week to show that it’s possible. I just don’t think a one dimensional run offense is going to be enough to keep pace with the Lions 8th-ranked passing attack now that the offensive line and deep threat Kenny Golladay are all getting healthy. The Lions won’t be able to run the ball, but they’ll move it through the air in what figures to be a field goal-heavy game for both teams. I expect a low-scoring game that Matt Stafford takes control of with a late touchdown drive. -Scott
Travis’ Pick: Lions 23, Bears 17 Scott’s Pick: Lions 20, Bears 16
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-1, O/U 45.5)
I wouldn’t have anticipated this game featuring two division leaders and home-field advantage implications, but here we are in the 2017 NFC. This is a huge game for both teams with very difficult games coming up in the schedule, and I expect both teams to show up and play well. The Vikings will need to run the ball well in this game in order to help keep their defense fresh against this stellar Rams’ offense. However, expect Case Keenum to take his shots against his former team, especially since the Vikings have made it clear that he’s playing for his job. The Rams will have a hard time matchup up with both Diggs and Thielen, similar to Washington’s struggles last week.
For the Rams, they have to find a way to give Jared Goff time in the pocket. This team has been able to make big plays in recent weeks, but those were not against defenses of this caliber. Expect the Rams to be more conservative and try to lean on the own running back. The Vikings can control Gurley, but they can’t stop him entirely, especially with his involvement in the passing game. I think this ends up being one of the better games of the week, but I’m not sure the Rams have experienced a road game against this type of defense. I’ll lean towards the Vikings. -Travis
Travis’ Pick: Vikings 24, Rams 20 Scott’s Pick: Rams 23, Vikings 20
Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (+2, O/U 38 points)
Green Bay surprised me by coming out of Chicago with a win last week, but I think that says more about the Bears than is does about the Packers. Chicago had every opportunity to take control of that game and just couldn’t take advantage. Now the Packers get to head back home and try to build on their success behind Brett Hundley, but losing Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery to injuries isn’t going to make things any easier. The Packers don’t have the talent to rely on their defense and running game to grind out wins every week, but the Ravens aren’t exactly the most explosive offense in the NFL. This game should be pretty close.
The Ravens are the Bears of the AFC; their running game is a little worse and their defense is a little better, but the philosophy is basically the same. The difference is that Joe Flacco knows how to take advantage when the Packers blitz. Even though this game is being played at Lambeau, I think the Ravens can shut down Green Bay’s limping running game and force Hundley into mistakes with pressure. This figures to be one of the more boring games of the week, and I expect it to be the beginning of the end of the Packers season. -Scott
Scott’s Pick: Ravens 20, Packers 17 Travis’ Pick: Ravens 19, Packers 16
Black and Blue Review 